I really hope I’m wrong about this…
But here’s what we know so far, as of March 19:
A month ago, Feb. 20, Italy had 4 confirmed cases of coronavirus, today they have had more coronavirus fatalities than China.
Today, Alachua County has 10 confirmed cases, 6 more than Italy had a month ago. The public knows very little about who these cases are, where they’ve been locally, how many people they may have exposed to the virus, how many of those exposed will eventually be diagnosed positive, and how many they, in turn, will have passed the virus to.
What we’ve seen is that the number of cases here has been doubling about every 3 days.
If that trend continues over the next month, and the number of cases doubles 10 more times, Alachua County will have 10,000 cases.
And in 2 more weeks, after 5 more doublings, it’ll be upwards of 100,000.
As I awkwardly tell people, “Say stafe.” It’s way too soon to be overconfident.