As I described in my first look at the City Commission races, based on the electability scores I came up with over two decades ago, it’s highly likely both incumbents–Todd Chase in District 2 and Susan Bottcher in District 3–will continue in office.
Chase has done almost nothing that would have eroded his initial support, while his opponents have mounted only token challenges.
Bottcher faces a well-funded opponent in Craig Carter, but if he were to prevail it would represent an almost unprecedented upset for someone with so low an electability score. Even if you take the 2010 Cynthia Chestnut/Susan Baird County Commission race as comparable, it should be noted that Chestnut actually carried the precincts that make up Bottcher’s district. A Carter victory would be a strong message for change, but it’s more likely Bottcher will at least squeak by.
That brings us to the at-large race, effectively a two-person race between first-time candidates Annie Orlando and Helen Warren. With neither having a decisively higher electability score, there’s no strong indicator favoring either candidate.
Therefore, any prediction has to be based on other factors. Drawing on my own experience studying precinct voting patterns over the last five decades (I’m not going to speculate on the mood of the electorate), I’d give the edge to Orlando.
How did I arrive at that conclusion?